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The Hamas-Hezbollah-Syria-Iran-Iraqi Insurgency Axis:
“Loose” Chump Change or a “Fourth Reichastan”
It is warmly comfortable to lazily scan the Hamas-Hezbollah-Syria-Iran-Iraqi Insurgency Axis as a disparate and discrete group of political/terrorist movements. For to otherwise view the insidious amalgam as a single coherent military and political machine would be to admit to an unthinkable and dark reality: that there currently exists a waxing nuclear capable Fourth Reichastan which is about to devastate and lay waste to the Judeo-Sunni-Christian-Buddhist-Hindu world. Such a conclusion would tear away the false veneer that now exists which isolates the Iraqi, Hamas and Hezbollah insurgencies from each other and from Syria’s and Iran’s vital military and sovereign support of both. The grim reality is that the Hamas/Hezbollah Israel War and the Iranian backed component of the Iraqi insurgency are two sides of the same coin that has as its fount the growing Iranian Fourth Reichastan Axis against America and the World.
Therefore, the only question is whether such an Iranian Fourth Reichastan exists. Now all manner of “experts” will collectively say “Pshaw!” They will piously intone the canard that “Syria is Alawite and Iran is Shiite,” therefore, there can’t possibly be a functional “Axis.” Firstly, the Alawites are a secret Shia sect that traces its roots to the Shia Imam, Hasan al Askari of the 9th century. This minority Alawite Shia sect of Syria actually oppresses what is a vast majority of Sunnis in Syria. So therefore, the Fourth Reichastan axis is a pure Twelver Shia axis. Further, historically, in the ante bellum tides of WWII, did Germany and Italy have to have exactly aligned interests to effectively function as a military “Axis”? No. In fact, in today’s terms Syria is the “Italian” or weaker element and Iran is the “German” or stronger element of the new Fourth Reichastan Axis. In a hauntingly eerie similarity, in the “Thirties,” Mussolini looked almost as Hitler’s equal partner in the Axis just as Assad now looks like an equal partner of Iran. The reality then is as the reality now, then, there was only one Fuehrer and now, that one “Fuehrer” is Iranian President Ahmadinejad and his kabal of end-of-days Mahdists. Iran is in fact using Syria, as Germany used Italy, to facilitate its early strategic moves in the “Thirties” so that in the “Forties” Iran will come to rule. Iran’s ignition of the illogical and unnecessary Hezbollah war may not be to tactically fog the Iranian nuclear issue but to strategically irrevocably push Syria into its loathsome embrace as Germany pushed Italy into its Axis in the Spanish Civil War. Additionally, Iran’s soon-in-coming acquisition of Lebanon by its Waffen SS Division (aka Hezbollah) is nothing short than a Shia-style modern-day Nazi Anschluss (aka rape) of Austria.
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In short, the seemingly disparate elements of the emerging Fourth Reichastan supply each other as an axis, defend each other as an axis, and fight for each other as an integrated axis: therefore, they’re an axis. Just because Iran has not openly fired missiles from its soil at Israel doesn’t mean its supply of materials and manpower and technical “advisors” and spiritual “permission” is not the essential and sovereign underpinning for Hezbollah’s open warfare on Israel. Likewise, just because Iran has not sent actual Iranian soldiers in actual Iranian uniforms into Iraq to openly kill American soldiers does not mean that Iran’s logistical supply of death-spewing IEDs, monetary and manpower supply to the Iraqi insurgency as a sovereign power, has not killed and maimed hundreds of US soldiers and effected a critical tipping point destabilization in Iraq. Such a silent, but extremely deadly war by Iran against America in Iraq is clearly aimed to cause America’s catastrophic military defeat in Iraq. Clearly, the Iranian malevolent elemental efforts in Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq arenas are not just isolated meddling but are a purposeful, and integrated and focused warfare with the specific intent on destroying American military and strategic vital interests in the Persian Gulf and the World.
As an important intermezzo issue, the bellicose neon threat of Saddam only masked the parallel, truer and far greater danger of the quietly incubating malignant Islamo-Nazi Iran, nurtured by Russian nuclear technology for cash transfers. Russia similarly in 1940 sold the essential oil for Hitler’s early Blitzkrieg machine against France and England. Fortuitously, the destruction of the feared Saddam only lured the presently stoppable cashstrapped Iran to rear its ugly head for the World to see and recognize for its palbable evil before a protonuclear Iran had effectively metastasized into an unstoppable nuclear-weaponized Iranian Fourth Reichastan. Furthermore, the destruction of Saddam has made virtually not a whit of difference in Iran’s decades’ long trajectory toward its acquisition of nuclear weapons. Bushehr, for one example, was contracted for with the Russians in 1995. In fact, conversely, without the fear of Saddam, Iran has overtly and tautologically stated their ambitions and intent to acquire a nuclear weaponized arsenal if “threatened.”
Nevertheless, if in fact there exists a Shi’ite Fourth Reichastan, the consequences are immediately stark, dramatic and dire. Most importantly, Syria, a modern reincarnation of fascist Italy, immediately becomes the de jure enemy of America. Syria is the critical enabling supplier of both the Iraqi insurgency and Hezbollah insurgency is no longer a dirty little secret ignorable by America. Syria is in fact the key supplier and sovereign territorial safe haven which supports the insurgency wars of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iraq. Syria is then an active purposeful belligerent against both America and Israel and not just a passive “innocent bystander.”
In fact, America’s and Israel’s disconnectedly treating Syria like an “innocent bystander” to the Hamas, Hezbollah or Iraqi insurgency wars will insure a twin defeat of Israel in its war of attrition with Hamas/Hezbollah and of America in its war with the Iraqi insurgency. Assad Junior will see his open support of both fronts as not only “costless” to his regime but his very empowering legitimacy. Assad will thereby be mistakenly emboldened, as was Mussolini, to redouble his resupply efforts and further fan the flames of both conflicts. In reality, America needs to ply Assad the same ‘Operation El Dorado Canyon’-like tough love with which Reagan, through Bush, wooed Khadafy. That may be all that is needed to roll up Iran’s baby faced junior partner in crime and to cut the Insurgencies’ key supply lines from Syria. Otherwise, America’s and Israel’s disastrous inaction with respect to Syria will allow Assad Junior to delude himself into thinking himself as the king maker Assad Senior instead of as what he really is, an Iranian pawn. Concomitantly, the Sunni population of Iraq, therefore, has a vested survival interest in eradicating its Syrian imported al Qaeda insurgency elements, and, in fact, protecting the American troops. For if the US withdraws, the Iraqi Sunnis will be annihilated from both the Syrian and Iranian axes.
Iranian Improvised Explosive Devices: IEDs
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America’s failure to immediately effect a militarily and political response to the reality of the Fourth Reichastan now will be even more irrevocably devastating to world peace and security than America’s ignoring the Third Reich’s exponentially strengthening axis of the Thirties. In the Thirties, there were vast defensive oceans and Germany did not possess either a nuclear potential or vast access and control of oil. Today, the exact opposite is true: Iran has a burgeoning nuclear potential and the Iranian Fourth Reichastan sits on vast natural oil reserves. Additionally, Iran sits astride tottering and cowering Sunni paper kingdoms whose massive strategic natural resources are necessary for today’s global economy. The ambient area holds two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves, and therefore is no “Vietnam.” As such, Iran possesses and exerts incalculable economic leverage over the superpowers of China and Russia. Finally, one must add to this volatile mix the sorry fact that MAD does not act as a deterrent to Iran but an incentive. In sum, this is not a pretty picture.
Today, Iran correctly sees Israel’s existence as a de facto projection of American military power and as the sole remaining obstacle to its future hegemony of the Middle East and the world, as Hitler saw Great Britain as the sole obstacle to his hegemony of Europe. Iran has learned from Germany’s mistake in WWII and Saddam’s mistake of the “Nineties,” and is not wasting any time or energy to occupy a defeated France or to consolidate a fractured Middle East before it attempts to destroy America’s WWII forward base equivalent of Great Britain: Israel. In fact, the ostensible balkanization of the oil rich Sunni Kingdoms provide a false appearance of strategic division which masks Iran’s true amassing strength. Iran’s ultimate destruction of Israel will cripple America’s ability to wage a winnable World War against Iran before that war even begins. Consequently, America can expect unrelenting hot and warm wars of attrition by Iranian-armed proxies against Israel and U.S. forces to rid itself of these sole remaining obstacles to what will be its total Middle East hegemony. Or, alternatively, in the wake of a catastrophic US Iraqi defeat/retreat, Iran will unquestionably militarily occupy Southern Iraq to Jordan. It will then hold a Sword of Damocles over the heads of Saudi Arabia, U.S. CENTCOM at Qatar, and the entire US 5th Fleet at Bahrain.
Unless America games out, takes action and protects itself and its allies against the possibility of a Fourth Reichastan now, the “Thirties” may rapidly become the “Forties,” or even the “Fifties” where Iran will have won.
Mark Langfan has had numerous articles on Israel’s military affairs published. This article (version 1.0) was published in the ‘Jewish Voice and Opinion’ January 2007.
US Iraqi Defeat/Retreat-Iran Expansion Nightmare Scenario
Phase One: Operation Crescent of Damocles
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In the wake of a catastrophic failure of US forces in Iraq causing a full Iraqi retreat, Iran will massively deploy “soft” heavily armed Al Quds Revolutionary Guards across the south of Iraq to the 1) Syrian Border, 2) Jordanian Border and 3) the Saudi Arabian border. Once consolidated, the Iranians will follow on with a “hard” deployment of heavily armored light vehicles to rout and cleanse any remaining Sunni presence.
Phase Two: Shamshir of Mahdi
1) Iranian light armor/paratroops blitzkrieg southeast in arc from Iraq to Dhahran in order to foreclose any US land based counter-attack from Dhahran and to threaten occupation of the US 5th Fleet HQ at Bahrain.
2) USHQ A at Qatar (2a) diverts virtually all air resources to protect US 5th Fleet HQ, USHQ A itself and to effect an Emergency War Egress of the US 5th Fleet and the remaining Aircraft Carrier Battle Group out of the Persian Gulf and will require Israel Air Force to provide massive covering fire on Iranian forces (2b) to slow advance.
3) Iran consolidates its attack and continues to vector southeast down the Persian Gulf coast threatening USHQ A.
4) Inside of Israeli Air Control envelope, USHQ A evacuates (4a) to fallback US/NATO HQ B (4b) in the old evacuated Israeli Sinai Air Bases that need to be renovated and repaired immediately at the substantial cost of Saudi Arabia and under sole US/NATO operational control so as to provide an effective retreat and counter-attack point in the event of an Iranian attack. Also, NATO must agree that in the event of an “activation” of US/NATO HQ B in the face of an Iranian attack on the Saudi Peninsula, full NATO mutual and reciprocal defense obligations are triggered including those of Turkey.
5) Iran vectors west to Riyadh(5a) and/or runs the coast, through UAE (5b)to effect the strategic goal of Oman so as to control the second half of the Strait of Hormuz choke point thereby sealing off of the Persian Gulf and trapping any remaining US warships.
6) If Iran attacks in a southwest vector from Iraq through the Syrian Desert to Tabuk (6a) or vectors west from Dhahran to Riyadh (6b) the Iranians goal is to capture the Holy Places of Medina and Mecca. The Israel Air Force must then inflict a massive attack on these forces so as to allow the US Forces tactical time and space for the US/Nato HQ B to reorganize its counter-attack.
7) The Saudi Air Force must effect an immediate retreat to the US/Nato HQ B so as to enable those valuable military assets to be effectively leveraged and integrated into US command and control for a counter attack.
8) Any further Iranian Syrian Desert movements or westward vectors to or from Riyadh can then neutralized from the fully activated and operational US/NATO HQ B with all ambient air forces including Israel’s to be assumed into one unified command and brought to bear.
9) Under full, and only under full US air control and supremacy of the Southwest quadrant of the Saudi Peninsula, ground forces can then be inserted at Jiddah to stabilize the Saudi ground space.
As a final note, the Iranian Mountain Crestline affords Iran a natural topographic air defense which makes Iran’s inner core relatively impervious to an air attack. Any attack plan against Iran must encompass a US Civil War-style Anaconda peripheral-type of longer term containment plan.
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ISRAEL‘S STRATEGIC VALUE POST 9/11 TERROR WAR SCENARIO
A demilitarized Palestinian West Bank / Gaza State will turn Israel from a U.S. Strategic Asset and Bulwark to Middle East Terror that is able to defend itself, into a defenseless U.S. liability, inviting attack unable even to defend itself, let alone project American military power.
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1. ISRAEL as a self-defensible U.S. strategic asset: With the Golan Heights (a), the West Bank mountain range (b) and the Gaza Strip (c) under Israeli military control, Israel is immune from a short to medium term existential threat.
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2. ISRAEL as an indefensible U.S. strategic liability, inviting attack: Without the Golan Heights, the West Bank mountain range and the Gaza Strip under Israeli control, but instead under hostile Arab control, Israel will be strategically vulnerable and exposed to a short-term existential threat. Such a conflict will be fueled by continued Arab terrorism against Israel.
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3. ISRAEL: the First Domino
Without the natural mountain defenses of the Golan and West Bank mountains, and with Israel’s ability to mobilize degraded, Israel would be easily destroyed and occupied by Syria and Egypt. Even a heavily militarized Palestinian State will be unable to militarily contain either the Syrians or the Egyptians. Hezbollah, the Syrians and the Egyptians will all vie for the occupation of the coveted Jerusalem.
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4. JORDAN: the Second Domino
Without Israel as its strategic protector, Jordan would be easily encroached by the militarily powerful Hezbollah, Syrians, Egyptians and Shiastan/Iran. Syria currently sees Jordan as Southern Syria and will fulfill its vision of Manifest Destiny.
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5. SAUDI ARABIA: the Third Domino
With the militarily powerful but oil-poor Egyptians and Syrians, and Shiastan/Iran on Saudi Arabia‘s northern border, Saudi Arabia will cease to exist. Without the Suez Canal under friendly occupational control, the Western powers will be unable to resupply or defend Saudi Arabia.
This article is written by Dudi Cohen and curated from Y Net News, where it was originally published in Feb. 5, 2007.
Khamenei: Israel dividing Muslim world
Iranian supreme leader tells Pakistani President Musharraf, “Zionist regime was created by West to divide Muslim world”; says regional troubles will end once “era of American aggressiveness and Zionist crimes passes”
"The establishment of the Zionist regime was an act committed by the West to create an ongoing clash in the Muslim world," said Iran‘s supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Monday during a meeting with visiting Pakistani President Gen. Perves Musharraf.
Musharraf, who recently arrived in Tehran, heard Khamenei describe the American and British support of Israel as encouragement to continue committing crimes against the Palestinians.
"Any plan involving the Middle East will not be successful until the era of American aggressiveness ends and the Zionist crimes are stopped," said Khamenei.
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Ahmadinejad (L), Musharraf and Khamenei in Teheran on Monday (Photo: AFP)
Khamenei also focused on the Palestinian issue, saying that Israel’s weaknesses became apparent during the Lebanon war while the Hamas government‘s "stand against the ‘Zionists’ is helping to show the path to the Palestinians’ problem."
328 centrifuges in Natanz nuclear plant
Meanwhile, European diplomats reported on Monday that Iran has installed two cascades of 164 centrifuges each in its underground nuclear plant, laying a basis for full-scale enrichment of uranium and upping the stakes in a standoff with the West.
The cascades were to be test-run shortly, without uranium feedstock inside, and fuel material would then be added if the tests were successful, they said. The 328 centrifuges would be the precursor of 3,000 planned for installation in the coming months.
Iran recently finished installing piping, electrical cables and other equipment needed to begin so-called "industrial-scale" enrichment in the vast subterranean complex, which is fortified and ringed by anti-aircraft guns in the central Iranian desert.
Firing up the cascades would dramatically sharpen Iran’s confrontation with Western powers that pushed through limited UN sanctions on Tehran six weeks ago to try to curb what they suspect is a disguised effort to assemble atomic bombs.
The Islamic Republic, the world’s No. 4 oil producer, says it wants solely civilian atomic energy from uranium enrichment.
Diplomats said the launch of the first two cascades may be the gist of Iran’s planned announcement of "significant" nuclear progress on Feb. 11, when it crowns 10 days of celebrations marking the anniversary of its 1979 Islamic Revolution.
This article is written by Yaakov Lappin and is curated from Y Net News, where it was originally published in Jan. 23, 2007.
Iran: Israel, US will soon die
Ahmadinejad: Be assured that the US and Israel will soon end lives
Israel and the United States will soon be destroyed, Iran‘s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday during a meeting with Syria‘s foreign minister, the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) website said in a report. Iran‘s official FARS news agency also reported the comments.
"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad… assured that the United States and the Zionist regime of Israel will soon come to the end of their lives," the Iranian president was quoted as saying.
"Sparking discord among Muslims, especially between the Shiites and Sunnis, is a plot hatched by the Zionists and the US for dominating regional nations and looting their resources," Ahmadinejad added, according to the report.
The Iranian president also directly tied events in Lebanon to a wider plan aimed at Israel‘s destruction. He called on "regional countries" to "support the Islamic resistance of the Lebanese people and strive to enhance solidarity and unity among the different Palestinian groups in a bid to pave the ground for the undermining of the Zionist regime whose demise is, of course, imminent."
Ahmadinejad has threatened the State of Israel with annihilation several times in recent months, and has recently added the US and Britain to the list of countries he says will be destroyed.
Syria‘s Foreign Minister, Wailed Mualem, accused the US of attempting to carry out a "massacre of Muslims" and of sowing "discord among Islamic faiths in the region."
Mualem called on "regional states to pave the ground for the establishment of peace and tranquillity… while preventing further genocide of the Muslims," the IRIB website said.
The excerpts below are from a PDF by The National Intelligence Estimate, where it was originally published in Jan. 2007.
Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics.
Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq. Syria continues to provide safehaven for expatriate Iraqi Bathists and to take less than adequate measures to stop the flow of foreign jihadists into Iraq.
...
If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally might intervene openly in the conflict;